Recently, proposed (the long overdue) 2016 redelineation has provoked much controversy as it has potentially jeopardize racial harmony and political outcome. Combing open electoral data and analysis from political analysts, below here are selected maps which show the far reaching implications for GE14 and beyond. The map colours are based on the winning margin of Barisan Nasional (BN) against Pakatan Rakyat in 2013 Parliamentary/State Election . Strong red (negative values) indicates strong opposition win in the polling districts while strong blue (positive values) indicate strong federal government win.
Ijok (north-central Selangor) is a state seat held by PKR sine 2008. In the proposed redelineation, the shifting of the boundaries have resulted a potential new political outcome. Assuming the electoral voting patterns remains unchanged since 2013, Barisan Nasional (BN) will win the seat with a small margin.
Ijok is an example of over represented seat (having elector population of 20734 as opposed to the mean Selangor state consitutency size of 37112). The issue of malapportionment has not been addressed since 2003 redelineation.
Seri Andalas & Kota Alam Shah
Seri Andalas and Kota Alam Shah state seats (Central Selangor) witness significant boundary alterations (that may have violated local ties). Kota Alam Shah seat (won by DAP) will witness a quantum leap in DAP majority vote (‘packing’). Seri Andalas seat (won by PKR) will become a marginal seat for the next General Elections. It will be at risk of changing of hands should voting patterns are altered. As in the image below, proposed Kota Alam Shah seat boundaries carves out significantly the opposition votes of Seri Andalas.
Kota Alam Shah witnessed an increase of electors of 29507 in GE13 to 41261 electors as of 2016. On other hand, Seri Andalas witnessed a drop of electors of 56763 in GE13 to 41523 electors. It seems the EC’s proposed redelineation have ensured both seats have similar elector count but violated the local ties of both constituencies.